{"id":26,"date":"2014-10-29T22:07:35","date_gmt":"2014-10-29T22:07:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/recommendationinsights.com\/?p=26"},"modified":"2020-08-18T13:09:13","modified_gmt":"2020-08-18T13:09:13","slug":"most-products-have-never-been-rated-by-critics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/recommendationinsights.com\/?p=26","title":{"rendered":"SCALING: Most Wines Have NEVER Been Rated By Critics"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>UPDATE, August 18, 2020: New data from a highy respected source: <a href=\"https:\/\/wineindustryinsight.com\/?p=112136\">116,000+ new wine products approved by TTB in past 12 months: bw166<\/a>.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Consumers who try to rely upon wine ratings to make purchase decision are often thwarted by the widespread absence of reviews. For that reason, I&#8217;ve been trying to figure out about how many wines that are for sale in the United States have actually been rated by critics.<\/p>\n<p>The numbers suggest that only about 25% ever get evaluated by the critics.<\/p>\n<p>How did I come up with the number? With a few assumptions based on the best data I could locate.<\/p>\n<h3>RATED: 25,000<\/h3>\n<p>The <em>Wine Spectator<\/em> says it rates 15,000 wines a year. The <em>Decanter<\/em> wine competition has about 13,000.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Assume a 50% overlap there. That would be 21,500.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Assume great overlaps with other critics and publications, but some additional wines.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Assume, perhaps the total of wines &#8212; available in the United States &#8212; and also rated rated by a critic is approximately 25,000<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>AVAILABLE: 95,000<\/h3>\n<p>Data below comes from TTB&#8217;s COLA database for 2011-2013.<\/p>\n<p>Search results turned up slightly different totals from day to day even though this is historical data.<\/p>\n<p>I also found that searching for a Range of types (80-81, for example) <a href=\"http:\/\/wineindustryinsight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screen-Shot-2014-08-15-at-5.33.46-PM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-55296\" src=\"http:\/\/wineindustryinsight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screen-Shot-2014-08-15-at-5.33.46-PM.png\" alt=\"Screen Shot 2014-08-15 at 5.33.46 PM\" width=\"164\" height=\"45\" \/><\/a>gave fewer results than separate searches for each type.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/wineindustryinsight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screen-Shot-2014-08-15-at-5.34.00-PM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-55295\" src=\"http:\/\/wineindustryinsight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screen-Shot-2014-08-15-at-5.34.00-PM.png\" alt=\"Screen Shot 2014-08-15 at 5.34.00 PM\" width=\"163\" height=\"45\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>(80-80) + (80A-80A) + (81-81). Thus, the graph below comes after 12 separate searches.<\/p>\n<h3>What Jurassic data provider cobbled this dinosaur together?<br style=\"font-family: monospace;\" \/><span style=\"font-family: monospace;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/wineindustryinsight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screen-Shot-2014-08-15-at-4.53.26-PM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-55290\" src=\"http:\/\/wineindustryinsight.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/Screen-Shot-2014-08-15-at-4.53.26-PM.png\" alt=\"Screen Shot 2014-08-15 at 4.53.26 PM\" width=\"537\" height=\"194\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<h3>UPDATE, August 18, 2020 &#8212; Actual solid data: <a href=\"https:\/\/wineindustryinsight.com\/?p=112136\">116,000+ new wine products approved by TTB in past 12 months: bw166<\/a>.<\/h3>\n<p>The following analysis<\/p>\n<h3>ACTUAL NUMBERS HIGHER DUE TO COLA RULES<\/h3>\n<p>The actual number for 2012 and 2013 are likely a lot higher because in 2012, the TTB began allowing a wide range of label changes (vintages dates and more) withOUT needing a new COLA.(<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ttb.gov\/labeling\/chart.pdf\">Complete List of Allowable Revisions To Approved Labels<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p><strong>ASSUMPTIONS BECAUSE NO ONE REALLY KNOWS<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>No one really knows how many new wines are released every year without a COLA because the label changes were allows.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Assume that 10% of new releases are sold without needing a new COLA. For 2013, that would be roughly 7,600 more wines.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In addition, not every bottle of every vintage is sold in one year. This is especially true for red wines which tend to have a longer shelf life.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Assume: 5% of 2011 wines (3,800) and 10% of 2012 wines (8,000) would have been for sale in 2013. Round that to 12,000 more wines that were for sale without needing a new COLA in 2013.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So, for 2013 the totals look like this:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>COLAs Issued: 75,615<\/li>\n<li>Wines released without needing a new COLA: 7,600<\/li>\n<li>Wines with COLAs from previous years still for sale: 12,000<\/li>\n<li>Total wines for sale in US in 2013 = 75,615 + 7,600 + 12,000 = 95,215<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>3\/4 OF AVAILABLE US WINES <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong><em>NOT<\/em><\/strong><\/span> RATED<\/h3>\n<p>25,000 wines rated versus 95,000 available =26% rated &#8230; just over a quarter.<\/p>\n<h3>PAGING A SKU NINJA<\/h3>\n<p>It would be interesting to locate a SKU ninja who maintains an accurate list of all active SKUs &#8230; and could determine that number for red, white, rose and sparkling wines.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, that is likely to be inaccurately higher than the actual number since there likely are active SKUs which no longer have merchandise behind them.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>UPDATE, August 18, 2020: New data from a highy respected source: 116,000+ new wine products approved by TTB in past 12 months: bw166. &nbsp; Consumers who try to rely upon wine ratings to make purchase decision are often thwarted by the widespread absence of reviews. For that reason, I&#8217;ve been trying to figure out about [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,3],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/recommendationinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/recommendationinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/recommendationinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/recommendationinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/recommendationinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=26"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/recommendationinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":720,"href":"https:\/\/recommendationinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26\/revisions\/720"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/recommendationinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=26"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/recommendationinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=26"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/recommendationinsights.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=26"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}